M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Deflation is coming upon the world financial world and pms have maxed out in this regard. i wouldnt get my hopes up of 100$ silver very soon if another equation(s) dont get in the mix fast. I may believe that a slow down accross the board including pms is a real possibiblity. Maybe the wishfull thinking needs to be reined up. It may be the wise thing to do.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Dont get excited we'll be in the 7's soon-----:rant:

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Deflation has been coming "soon" for the last 7 or 8 years. Every time commodity prices drop a little bit, all the deflationistas come out of the woodwork and say, "Look, I told you deflation was coming". Of course, each time, prices are higher than they were the last time the "warning" came.

I expect many more years of inflation, and many more years of deflation warnings from the deflationistas. Maybe ten years or so from now, when we are done with this currency cycle of inflation, we will have some deflation, but its certainly a long way off.

Being 10+ years early to the party is the same as being dead wrong.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

M1 only includes physical currency in circulation plus checking accounts.

To include things like savings account, money market funds, time deposits over certain amounts (like CDs larger than X dollars), you have to look at M2 and M3.

Even though M1 has been decreasing recently, M2 and especially M3 have continued their rapid increase.

To look at the total amount of dollars in the economy, which is what determines prices (inflation or deflation), you MUST look at M3 to get a complete picture.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Well Im not an economist nor are you I assume. M1 is OUR WORLD. Talk about M3 is 10 years out-- but the real world is telling us that money creation is flat shorterm, (dont mention credit) 3 years forward is deflationary.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Sounds like you'd better liquidate. :smokin:

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

No, no liquidation just no flat buys for now. Like SKF and the puts still. :smokin:

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Well, I do have a degree in economics, and I can tell you that M1 and M3 have nothing to do with short or long term. If M1 is decreasing and M3 is increasing, that is textbook inflation.

Think about it like this, if the government took $20 in physical currency from every person in the US, but gave them a money market account with 20 million dollars in it, you would see falling M1 and rising M3. Obviously you would want to convert your FRNs to an inflation hedge at that point.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Are You suggesting simple bank loan-out based rational rates?

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Unless you got in the metals at the 30 year lows....you better sell because otherwise you are going to get crushed on your investment. Cash is king in deflation period.....sell now before it's too late.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

You need to learn the difference between money and currency. One of them is cash, the other is not.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Do you have a savings account? Savings accounts are not included in M1 but are included in M2 and M3.

That right there should prove to you that M1 is not the complete picture.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Passbooks are falling--- M1 is the target . Deflation and get out of the way.Gold and silver are only for support and wealth.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Passbooks are demand deposits included in M1.

Edit: I am wrong. I assumed passbooks to be demand deposits. I forgot about the small print that we ignore in the deposit agreement.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

What the hell are passbooks? I even tried googling and no luck. Some slang that I'm not aware of?

Regardless, the money supply that is accounted for in M2 and M3 that is not accounted for in M1 is still money -- it can be spent, and when you have more dollars chasing the same amount of goods and services, prices go up. That is the textbook definition of inflation.

To argue that deflation is occurring while M3 is growing at a much faster rate than M1 is declining, is to say that the money in M2 and M3 that is not in M1 _cannot_ be spent on goods and services. Is that what you are asserting? If so, that means you believe that people cannot cash in their savings accounts, cannot cash in their money market accounts, and cannot cash in large time-based deposits like CDs over a certain amount. That is patently false.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

In the old days, savings account holders were issued a "passbook". Records for the account holder were kept within.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

im my opinion we are not just experiencing inflation. right now we are experiencing booming inflation 10%+ . this, combined with a stagnating economy and wages that aren't increasing (causing a supply shock), is in my opinion, 'textbook stagflation'.

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

May I coin the term Hyperstagflation? Or has someone beat me to it? That is what is coming. Oh - and population reduction on a biblical scale

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Why would we listen to an economist? :D Aren't they the ones that got us into all this trouble?

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

I think you hit it right on the head mozkill! :coolbeer:

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

It was a post made in jest.......:wink:

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Wait until I finish emptying my digital frn's in my brokerage account to be only in physical...:wink:

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Opps, sorry. :D

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

http://www.gold-eagle.com/research/ascanindx.html

go here and read about GOLD in deflation via 14 articles!

It's better then INFLATION!


GOLD and Silver (read precious metals) JUST LOVE tremendous uncertainty and EXTREMES!

Ever seen anybody more extreme than Obama/Osama or the FED right now BUYING up the nation?

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

$7.50 - $8 is da next stop...dflation that is

Re: M1 flat-Deflation coming-- Pms flat at best
 

Dr. Willie,

It seems that you must be a great student of deflation like Prof. Bernanke, whom you are of course friendly with from your days at Princeton. Don't you then remember how gold went up 75% during the great depression, and then went up another 20% during WWII?